Replying to @⁨qImPMgxRpOZiUbxz4hWq@lemmy.world⁩

Can we just observe what a bizarre fucking moment we are living in?

Everyone knows the collapse of the AI bubble is imminent and most of those people know it’s going to be the proximal trigger for a global financial collapse and at the very least a long recession.

Everyone knows except the people who are investing billions of dollars into AI and their press.

Replying to @⁨schipelblorp@sh.itjust.works⁩

Here’s the thing about bubbles - when people believe that collapse is imminent, they hold back and don’t dive in. It is only when the overwhelming majority believe that this new thing can’t lose, is going to change the world, and that we are in a “new paradigm” where the old rules don’t matter, that the bubble has peaked and collapse is imminent. We’ve probably got another year or so before collapse. Too many people are still skeptical.

Replying to @⁨N0t_5ure@lemmy.world⁩

Timing a bubble pop is notoriously difficult.

I think one thing that’s helping people hang on to delusion is the scarcity of real information. For instance, it’s prefectly possible that 2/3rds of NVIDIA GPUS purchased for data centers are just sitting in a warehouse somewhere, uninstalled. But that’s just a guess based on available data, but we can’t know for sure.

I think with Anthropic and OpenAI’s upcoming IPOs, we’re going to get a lot of information that will eventually filter through the slavish business press and into public consciousness as facts instead of opinions.

en