Timing a bubble pop is notoriously difficult.

I think one thing that’s helping people hang on to delusion is the scarcity of real information. For instance, it’s prefectly possible that 2/3rds of NVIDIA GPUS purchased for data centers are just sitting in a warehouse somewhere, uninstalled. But that’s just a guess based on available data, but we can’t know for sure.

I think with Anthropic and OpenAI’s upcoming IPOs, we’re going to get a lot of information that will eventually filter through the slavish business press and into public consciousness as facts instead of opinions.

I think this bubble is a bit different and not really reliant on the general public’s view or support. They will attempt to ram this down our throats, with violence where necessary, because the more buy-in the better, but the clock is already ticking because they made promises of profit they cannot keep and when the debt comes due they will not be able to pay

They know their promises cannot be kept. They are building a surveillance state for the government. When the bubble bursts, the government will swoop in and bail them out because they are too big to fail and hand over most of these AI resources to the US government.

Bond market already knows. But this time it’s an ugly double whammy as it’s both the AI companies and the US government that won’t be able to pay their debt, and they are interlinked.

If it comes to it, the US is constitutionally barred from just defaulting on its debts. And the US government can just print more money. Which will massively devalue the USD, tanking the economy and killing their ability to borrow more in the future, but it’ll still technically allow them to pay off the current debt.

Technically, yes - but not in a way that foreign investors would want to lend any more money in the future.

I feel like we just left the era of delusions of “new paradigm” and entering the skepticism part. Of course plenty of people have always been skeptical, but not the people with enough money to cause this.

OTOH, timing can still be difficult to predict. Surely people knew tulips weren’t worth more than homes, yet it took years after tulips reached that price for the peak to be reached iirc. Even if people know the crazy is irrational and cannot go on forever, there is still FOMO. The peak is likely to happen after a lot of people know the thing will have to crash eventually, but enough continue to try to eek would a little more profit while not being left holding the bag.

The peak only happens after a good majority think the crash is imminent and are ready to sell off to avoid being left with nothing. Hence why many of these companies are trying to be added to indicies quickly so that pension/retirement funds can be the one stuck with much of the losses while the billionaires just to onto their next grift.