Replying to @⁨qImPMgxRpOZiUbxz4hWq@lemmy.world⁩

Can we just observe what a bizarre fucking moment we are living in?

Everyone knows the collapse of the AI bubble is imminent and most of those people know it’s going to be the proximal trigger for a global financial collapse and at the very least a long recession.

Everyone knows except the people who are investing billions of dollars into AI and their press.

Replying to @⁨schipelblorp@sh.itjust.works⁩

People are staying with their old hardware longer

Absolutely 100% my experience too, my computer is a mix of 2-5 year old hardware, and I’m still on the AM4 socket which is 9 years old now! It is a newer motherboard but I started on that socket way back in 2017! The upgrade path for AM4 has been insane. 😋
In the 90’s I wouldn’t have a single component that was 2 years old.
IDK if that’s because I’m older, but definitely it seems the advantage of upgrading every year is diminishing, and the price is increasing. Sometimes I would even buy a new GPU 2 times in the same year. 😜

Replying to @⁨Buffalox@lemmy.world⁩

My desktop is 10-year-old gaming PC. If you look at the Steam Survey, it’s about middle-of-the-road today.

It’s not just PC. It’s an open question whether anyone is going to be the next gen of game console, and that’s partially because gaming itselfhas been enshittified, but also for the same reason people aren’t running out to buy 8K TV’s–the minimal improvement in subjective experience is not worth the price.

People are more likely to replace phones because they break than because they are upgrading–partially why Apple and Samsung are doing their DARNEDEST to lock down repairs, so they can drive up the cost of repairs to force people to buy a new phone.

We’re approaching a world where we think of what was formerly “high technology” the same way we think of refrigerators–as basic devices that can generically and permanently do a necessary set of tasks.

Replying to @⁨Buffalox@lemmy.world⁩

The economics of consoles are in shambles.

It used to be you’d get highish-end hardware at cheaper price because of mass production and manufacturer incentives (made up for on games).

Now with people carrying massive game libraries, they’re less likely to buy new games, at the same time as console gaming becomes enshittified cash grabs, at the same time as tech has hit diminishing returns in an industry where generational hardware sales drive software purchases.

Playstation has a few exclusives, but XBox has literally none–it’s all cross compatible with Windows, and almost every single one of those titles is playable via Steam on Linux. You can build an equivalent PC for the same price or less than the equivalent console, and have improved upgrade and repair paths, plus mods, plus Steam sales… consoles make less and less financial sense every day.

The only console that is doing well is Nintendo, and that’s because they built around content not hardware.

And that said, most kids are growing up gaming on tablets and phones, and they haven’t gone through the evolutionary learning process that a 35-year-old life-long gamer. Chances are you hand an 8-year-old a complex two-stick game and they’ll do about as well as my father would.

I think likely we’ll have a profusion of quirky handheld consoles, but the big box consoles will be replaced with computers.

Replying to @⁨schipelblorp@sh.itjust.works⁩

the big box consoles will be replaced with computers.

I think you are wrong, the PC is dying, and the consoles will have even bigger advantage from mass production in the future.
Most people don’t care to maintain a PC just to play games, and most people don’t really have any other use for a PC anymore.
Even without subsidies from Microsoft and Sony, the current gen consoles were cheaper than an equivalent performing PC when they arrived. But in the future that may not be true, it’s all down to profit maximization, because there is no doubt a console can be sold cheaper than an equivalent performing PC.

Replying to @⁨Buffalox@lemmy.world⁩

Depends on what you wanna use it for. If you wanna host a bunch of services, do scientific computing, or play modded video games with really bad memory leaks and memory optimization, perhaps?

The problem is memory is expensive because fabs have switched to making HBM3 and EEC LPDDRX5 (soldered memory, like what’s in a phone and some laptops). So even when the crash happens, we won’t get a mass sell-off of useful consumer hardware. Likewise, the “GPUs” don’t even have video outputs.

Replying to @⁨WalrusDragonOnABike@reddthat.com⁩

I’m just a casual user today, I used to stress my computers to the limit, but not anymore.
So I most definitely would make very poor use of maxing my RAM.

Back in the day I loaded DVD 's into virtual drives in RAM, to make games load faster.
For some reason the Linux kernel works best with a swap disk, so I had that in RAM too, and of course temporary files.

These things are of course banal although they were extremely efficient back in the day, and this was a thing I learned already back in the 80’s where the Amiga made similar things possible.
Today with fast SSD drives I don’t feel the need, and to be honest I already have more RAM than I need. And since I don’t program anymore either, which I always found interesting to explore the capabilities of new hardware, I have become an “average” user. 😳

Replying to @⁨paraphrand@lemmy.world⁩

No, I know what it means. I don’t think it applies here. It would apply to something like a pump and dump scheme, where the people know the bag is already empty, but they fluff it up and try to pass it off on someone else before the whole thing collapses.

That’s not what these companies are doing. They legitimately believe that AI will eventually become profitable and are trying to corner the market and be the dominant player. They WANT the crash. They just want to be the ones that survive it. That’s not the same as trying to leave someone else with the bag at the end of it.

Replying to an earlier post

There’s a full discussion of the phrase here

Your interpretation, to be left with an empty bag that previously had something valuable, is one of several interpretations, but not the earliest.

The original seems to be, the member of the group holding a bag of contraband when the authorities intervene.

I think this second meaning is the more compelling: the group sought a benefit but only one bears the cost. Or, each member of the group took the risk but that risk only materialised for one member.

I mean, after you share out a bag of gold, including giving yourself a share, the bag will be empty.

Replying to @⁨nullPointer@programming.dev⁩

I don’t think that’s really the same. Not being left with the bag means you know already know the bag is empty and pass it on to someone else before they realize it’s empty. Like a pump and dump scheme.

That’s not what these companies are doing. They’re not trying to leave investors holding the empty bag. They are legitimately trying to turn profitable and corner the market.

Replying to @⁨Earthwormjim91@lemmy.world⁩

The fibre in the ground from the dotcom bubble was still used… eventually.

Most of the 100’s of billions of dollars of GPUs that have just been sitting on shelves in warehouses and will continue to sit there for years even if there isn’t a crash will be nearly worthless (relative to the prices paid) whether they try to mass liquidate at a small fraction of the purchase price to pay back some of their 10%+ interest loans they used to buy them or they sit around for a decade until there’s a place to put them and at that point they could be so inefficient, they’re not worth the money to install them and power to run them.

Replying to @⁨WalrusDragonOnABike@reddthat.com⁩

Yeah, chips are more of a perishable good than any kind of durable infrastructure, and at the end of the day, the models themselves have no durable value because information is never truly scarce, regardless of how they try to make us pretend it is or poison the well with lies. There’s no magic solution to making LLMs actual AGI or even effective tools outside of their narrow scope. Not only that, the way they’re using it is extremely reckless, deeply inefficient, and supremely cost intensive, on a level that makes the Manhattan Project look wholesome. There isn’t going to be a “last man standing” to win, it’s just going to go up like flash powder and take everyone in the dogpile with it.

Replying to @⁨adjectivenoun@lemmy.world⁩

The LOE stuff is the dumbest shit possible I’ve ever heard for data centers I swear to God. Who the hell comes up with these ideas 😭 space is such a difficult environment to work in, absolutely not suited for data centers. You barely get any benefit out of it at all, just somewhat more efficient solar panels that could have been worked around by having more down on earth

Replying to @⁨SkyeStarfall@lemmy.blahaj.zone⁩

There’s a pretty big benefit to the solar panels: more efficient and also can be placed in a solar-synchronous orbit that is always illuminated. I can’t imagine that power advantage outweighs the disadvantages of cooling power-hungry hardware with no way to reject that heat to air or water. I’m with you: WTF are they thinking?

I heard Google just launched a test bed. Basically one mini server the size of a refrigerator that can only operate for 15 minutes before it needs to shut off to prevent heat damage. I’m guessing that thing will prove the case against celestial data centers, but we’ll see. The only good thing to come of this is that it might help advance cooling tech for satellites and suchlike.

Replying to @⁨Earthwormjim91@lemmy.world⁩

Just so we are clear the dot com crash was a result of over commercialization and venture capitalization of the World Wide Web (hence “dot com” crash and not Newsgroup crash). The Internet was nearly 30 years old at that point. What became AOL went online in 1985, 8 years before commercial interests were allowed on the WWW, just as one for instance.

Replying to @⁨schipelblorp@sh.itjust.works⁩

Oh they definitely know, it’s a deliberate and methodical way to pump the money around between corporations, move it from consumers to corporations and from corporations to the C-suite. They know the bubble will burst. They only care about how much money they have extracted from it to still come out on top after it all comes crashing down.

It’s a pyramid scheme, we’re the ones at the bottom and we can’t get out.

Replying to @⁨schipelblorp@sh.itjust.works⁩

Here’s the thing about bubbles - when people believe that collapse is imminent, they hold back and don’t dive in. It is only when the overwhelming majority believe that this new thing can’t lose, is going to change the world, and that we are in a “new paradigm” where the old rules don’t matter, that the bubble has peaked and collapse is imminent. We’ve probably got another year or so before collapse. Too many people are still skeptical.

Replying to @⁨N0t_5ure@lemmy.world⁩

Timing a bubble pop is notoriously difficult.

I think one thing that’s helping people hang on to delusion is the scarcity of real information. For instance, it’s prefectly possible that 2/3rds of NVIDIA GPUS purchased for data centers are just sitting in a warehouse somewhere, uninstalled. But that’s just a guess based on available data, but we can’t know for sure.

I think with Anthropic and OpenAI’s upcoming IPOs, we’re going to get a lot of information that will eventually filter through the slavish business press and into public consciousness as facts instead of opinions.

Replying to @⁨N0t_5ure@lemmy.world⁩

I feel like we just left the era of delusions of “new paradigm” and entering the skepticism part. Of course plenty of people have always been skeptical, but not the people with enough money to cause this.

OTOH, timing can still be difficult to predict. Surely people knew tulips weren’t worth more than homes, yet it took years after tulips reached that price for the peak to be reached iirc. Even if people know the crazy is irrational and cannot go on forever, there is still FOMO. The peak is likely to happen after a lot of people know the thing will have to crash eventually, but enough continue to try to eek would a little more profit while not being left holding the bag.

The peak only happens after a good majority think the crash is imminent and are ready to sell off to avoid being left with nothing. Hence why many of these companies are trying to be added to indicies quickly so that pension/retirement funds can be the one stuck with much of the losses while the billionaires just to onto their next grift.

Replying to @⁨schipelblorp@sh.itjust.works⁩

Everyone knows the collapse of the AI bubble is imminent

Paul Krugman was predicting the Housing Crash as early as 2004 in his NYT column.

Everyone knows except the people who are investing billions of dollars into AI and their press.

The theory of the modern tech industry is that you can simply outrun your problems. Meta/Facebook has done this repeatedly, leaping over multi-billion-dollar failure after failure based entirely on the inertia of their core product growth combined with low interest rates and a bullish long term economic outlook.

Even in the worst-case scenario, we have such an enormous array of tools to manipulate markets - as demonstrated in 2008 and 2014 and 2020 - that investors are reluctant to sell with a massive federal bailout always on the horizon. And we’re far from the worst-case scenario. '26 Q2 was a historic earnings season. We are in the middle of the biggest bull market in history.

Replying to @⁨brucethemoose@lemmy.world⁩

Also lots of people in threads like these are assuming that "the AI bubble pops" means "everybody stops using AI and it all goes back to the way things were before ChatGPT came along." There's still an enormous demand for AI inference, that's simply not going to go away. People will still want to use AI. The bubble popping would mean a big drop in resources being spent on developing new models, that's all. It'd help the prices somewhat in the short term. But in the long term we simply need more chip foundries.

Replying to @⁨FaceDeer@fedia.io⁩

It’s more than just that. Smaller models are improving rapidly and are already “good enough” for the majority of consumer use cases. It is entirely realistic that in a few years, there will be virtually no demand for trillion-parameter LLMs. Demand for inference might not shrink in terms of functionality, but it will absolutely shrink in terms of memory and compute requirements. And then there will be a hell of a lot more server capacity available than anyone needs or wants, because they’re over-investing like crazy now.

What happens when hundreds of billions of dollars spent on datacenters basically goes *poof*?

Replying to @⁨AnAmericanPotato@programming.dev⁩

The people who paid for the data centers will go bankrupt, the data centers themselves will be sold for pennies on the dollar, but then the people who bought those data centers for pennies on the dollar will be able to make profit renting inference for a lower price than those original investors could have sustained themselves on. So I'm expecting there'll still be plenty of AI horsepower churning away, it'll just be doing it more cheaply and not doing it under the banners of the current incumbents.

First movers often fail in this manner, they spend a lot of money making mistakes and discoveries that later followers can make use of for cheap.

Replying to @⁨ThePantser@sh.itjust.works⁩

HBM is only usable with chips co-designed for it, packaged on an interposer with microscopic traces. An enthusiast is not doing anything useful with it unless they own a few TSMC assembly plants.

The CPU modules can be tricky, too.

Now, some enthusiasts are already hacking. Go to the Level 1 Tech forums, and you’ll find a group trying to reverse engineer AMD Instinct GPUs designed for server motherboards, dealing with locked firmware, soldering stuff, you name it.

…But you probably won’t like the end goal of the hacking: using them to run LLMs and other GPGPU stuff locally. They aren’t usable for gaming.

Replying to @⁨Buffalox@lemmy.world⁩

Unfortunately, memory production capacity changes vary slowly.

In spite of the drama, memory production hasn’t increased all that much, which is why there is such a RAM crisis. Maybe it will grow some before the bubble pops, but Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung aren’t stupid:

en.sedaily.com/…/microns-long-term-chip-deals-jum…

They are getting companies to sign long term (5+ year) pricing contracts. In other words, they clearly know the bubble could pop. They are already hedging their bets, and they aren’t going to put themselves in the position of massive overexpansion.

Micron's Long-Term Chip Deals Jump 63% as AI Memory Shortage Drags OnSeoul Economic DailyMicron's Long-Term Chip Deals Jump 63% as AI Memory Shortage Drags OnMicron's long-term chip supply deals rose to 26 from 16 in a quarter, and Samsung and SK hynix are widening five-year contracts amid an AI memory shortage.

Replying to @⁨AmyAye@nord.pub⁩

If I had a few billion for a TSMC factory, I would…

This is what I’m referencing. The memory sits on the package with the processor, connected with thousands of microscopic traces, so fine it needs an expensive substrate rather than a typical PCB, and expensive equipment to assemble:

The connectors are tiny, and made with immense precision. There are about a thousand reasons you can’t just transfer HBM once its been used, and besides; other memory controllers wouldnt’ support it.

Replying to @⁨ZeroPoke@fedia.io⁩

Datacenter GPUs can’t game :(. As in, it’s literally impossible, as they are missing ROPs.

The last generation that could is basically the Nvidia V100, and the datacenter equivalent of your Radeon VII. AMD removed the ROPs after the Radeon VII generation. The RTX 3000-generation Nvidia A100 can technically run a game if hacked to do so, but it performs extremely poorly because of a lopsided compute config.

Now, if you are interested in GPU compute and self-hosting, maybe we can use them.

But Nvidia learned to buy back and destroy GPUs during the last crypto bust, so I’m afraid they may do it again.

Replying to @⁨ZeroPoke@fedia.io⁩

I know.

One can’t just bolt HBM onto something else, no matter how skilled the hacker is. It needs an interposer to connect it because the pin pitch is so small, and it needs a memory controller that supports it.

EDIT: And if you’re talking about AMD using it in gaming GPUs or some other hardware, unfortunately the design pipeline is very long. If AMD decided to make a gaming HBM GPU right this second, and rushed it, it would take years to design it and get it in production.

Replying to @⁨Buffalox@lemmy.world⁩

One of the big issues is, a lot of the hardware has actually been produced. Companies like Microsoft are sitting on huge stockpiles of hardware waiting for the data centers to become ready. These data centers probably won’t get built, so that hardware is just sitting there unused. It’s going to take a long while for manufacturers to switch back to making hardware for regular people again and even longer for the shortages to be fixed. I’d say if the bubble pops tomorrow, we’re still looking at high prices for at least two years. And realistically prices won’t go back down again.

Replying to @⁨qImPMgxRpOZiUbxz4hWq@lemmy.world⁩

I love the Linux community, because this memory shortage has prompted two quite significant developments. Firstly, quite a substantial speedup of the Zram/Zswap (whichever one it is) systems (and a little improvement on compression), secondly, a potentially whole new memory compression stack referred to as CRAM that could allow reading compressed memory directly at near-DRAM speeds.

While making current memory management more efficient won’t in any case effectively solve the memory shortage, as none of these savings are comparable to effectively giving you a free extra stick, it is awesome that people have spent significant effort on this front.

Replying to @⁨Simon_Shitewood@lemmy.ml⁩

It’s not sustainable. The data centers need to produce money soon, and currently, it’s not even clear when they will get the power they need or if AGI/ASI is even possible with our current approach to LLMs. The money that went into the construction is gone, and no ROI is visible anywhere. The amount of debt is staggering, and debtors won’t wait forever.

Bubbles can last decades, this one won’t.

There is a reason why RAM production is not ramping up. The collapse is too close to make it feasible.

Replying to @⁨Xerxos@lemmy.ml⁩

Debtors will wait as long as they think it will take to get their investment back, and AI companies can’t currently pay any of those debts, so their investors will keep waiting until they can. Similarly, RAM companies have almost complete control of supply while demand is through the roof - they’re making money hand over fist, there’s no incentive for them to expand when that will only impact their profits at the moment.
Bubbles last so long because the mechanisms of capitalism encourage making them last so long. The bigger the bubble, the more you risk losing in the pop, the more incentive there is to keep growing it. The world already has 10 times more debt in circulation than it does money, adding more doesn’t bother capitalists.

Replying to @⁨qImPMgxRpOZiUbxz4hWq@lemmy.world⁩

There is no bubble bursting in the near future.

We are just entering a stage when AI is becoming a cyber security threat. It can become a weapon. What that means is:

  1. There is a large military budget that is going to be invested in it
  2. There is an order of magnitude larger cybersecurity budget to be spent by everyone not wanting to become a target of those mentioned in point 1

AI is a weapon and the only way of defending against it is AI. Do not expect budget cut.

Replying to @⁨qImPMgxRpOZiUbxz4hWq@lemmy.world⁩

I never understood why my dad was always so cheap until now.

You “used” to pay this much for something and now it skyrocketed, so you can’t live with yourself paying that higher price when it has been much cheaper for so long. Maybe he thought prices were going to come down again.

I don’t think the prices of RAM are ever going to come down. At least as long as people keep paying, which they do.

Replying to @⁨MrPnut@lemmy.world⁩

Well, people aren’t really paying. Theoretically, large AI investment groups are paying. I say theoretically because as far as I understand it, they’ve mostly promised to buy the output but I don’t think have actually made good on buying it. The manufactured scarcity is being realized as increased memory costs, but the contracts are still landing even though the biggest contract may not actually be filled in the future (AI bubble). It’s why memory makers are trying to get Apple and co to commit to today’s prices for the next 3 years, because if they do and the big contract falls through, they still get their insane profit margin baked in for a bit and then can stockpile / price fix / sell through to market.

The big wrench here will be if Chinese memory fabs come online. If that big contract (AI) defaults, existing contracts are going to be very much worthless as folks would rather cancel them and fill orders at CXMT. So you may see a lot of consumer memory start filling from those fabs as they take market share while traditional players try to price fix. So the real question is, will cxmt try to capture market or play price fixing with the current cartel? My money is on market share.

Replying to @⁨SocialMediaRefugee@lemmy.world⁩

I think we are “lucky” that it effects all computer like electronics (laptops, PCs, gaming consoles, phones). If it was only PCs, the PC as we know it would die out.

My prediction is that all software will use less ram and less GPU in the coming years. If companies keep on shifting towards higher requirements year after year, people won’t buy it anymore because it will simply not run on a mainstream machine anymore.

Replying to @⁨HereIAm@lemmy.world⁩

I think it’s a little of both, but one of my friends left my company producing weird semiconductors to go work at Micron making RAM. They’re definitely ramping up a little, but the equipment and techniques to fab those chips is very specialized. Imagine trying to drill zillions of really tiny, deep pits, and then making sure the very bottom of those pits get coated while the sidewalls are completely unaffected… and you have to do it everywhere uniformly on a hundred 350mm wafers per minute.

Replying to @⁨8oow3291d@feddit.dk⁩

the ram cartels have been hit for price fixing time and time again for decades. this most recent has been driven by the irrational over-investment into ai, but it’s a tale old as… commodity RAM lol.

tech4gamers.com/ram-price-fixing-lawsuit-exposed/ 2026

tomshardware.com/…/samsung-sk-hynix-and-micron-su…

www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/…/ar-AA26TW8E

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_industry_price_fixing 2002

aol.com/…/80s-had-ram-oil-crisis-021700000.html the 80s

Replying to @⁨qImPMgxRpOZiUbxz4hWq@lemmy.world⁩

The prices keep going up because the willingness to pay isn’t slowing down. As long as people are willing to over pay, the prices will keep going up! Of course the suppliers are predicting price increases, they know there’s a crowd that HAS to have the latest and greatest even when previous gen hardware still hangs, and they have deep pockets and no patience. Then u have people paying for cloud services and shit, increasing demand. This isn’t even getting into the AI craze or cloud computing. I have a friend that won’t build a gaming PC because “it’s cheaper to pay to stream a PC from my laptop” while complaining about ram shortages, which he is actively funding. I am perfectly happy with my ryzen 5 running ddr4 and a rx6600, it plays everything on my 1080p 75hz monitor just fine. I won’t dare think about upgrading till the madness stops, and if it doesnt then fine I’ve been priced out of gaming. My sub 800$ PC is already more expensive than half the cars and motorcycles I have owned 😭 no I’m not spending 2k to build a rig jeeezum

Replying to @⁨innermachine@lemmy.world⁩

Yes, this is true that prices are continuing to rise because they’re still being bought at that high price, but most of that isn’t consumers (and/or “enthusiasts”) absolutely needing it no matter the cost.

The price is what it is because ai and cloud compute companies are willing to pay that insanely inflated price, so if you want even the chance to get any dram, you need to be willing to pay more than OpenAI/Microsoft/Google/NVIDIA/etc are, for Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron to even consider you.

Why would they bother selling their dram chips in consumer packages for a fraction of what enterprises are willing to pay. The price is what it is, because that’s the price that it becomes worth it for the dram manufacturers to actually care about the consumer market.

Replying to @⁨Lucidlethargy@sh.itjust.works⁩

microsoft’s own evaluation chills me, because it’s spot on, and THEY STILL WENT FULL FUCKIN HOG deepthroating this garbage:

“Millions of people around the world will soon consider large models ‘hoovering up’ all their work to be an astonishing theft of unprecedented proportions,” an internal Microsoft document admitted.

futurism.com/…/ai-is-creating-doom-loops-all-over…

Replying to @⁨Lucidlethargy@sh.itjust.works⁩

The massive financial crash that will wipeout those assholes might the only real “win” the rest of us get.

Of course, judging by the last one in 2008 (which, IMHO, I suspect will turn out to be smaller than the AI one), governments the world over will try to save the assholes and make the rest of us pay for it with Austerity - if there’s one thing I’ve learned from living through a couple of major crashes (in the very industries most hard hit) and several minor ones is that when those in power see that they can rescue the wealthy whilst making the rest pay with no consequences for themselves, they’ll do it again and again in ever more extreme ways, until things at a societal level rather than just crack, actually blow up.

We shall see - there is really no way the rest of us can stop the desperate feeding frenzy amongst the increasingly panicked elites and their politician minions before the whole thing crashes from the systemic accumulation of inbalances, so no matter what we (the common folk) do, we’re going to get a massive AI crash - probably as big as the Net Crash and the 2008 Crash together - the more the feeding freenzy lasts (and governments as usual are activelly trying to delay the day of reckoning, hence making the feeding frenzy last longer and hit deeper) and the more of the broader Economy the sharks can reach, the worse it will be.

Replying to @⁨qImPMgxRpOZiUbxz4hWq@lemmy.world⁩

STOP BUYING TECH. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, STOP. THE ONLY REASON PRICES KEEP GOING UP LIKE THIS IS BECAUSE PEOPLE AREN’T WILLING TO SACRIFICE COMFORT TO MAKE A POINT.

Buy used. Use hand me downs. Learn a new operating system to get new life out of stuff you already HAVE.

If people can’t give up access to shitty software to save tech, there’s no hope for the species. Period.

Replying to @⁨mycodesucks@lemmy.world⁩

Buying used is per se not a bad idea, but the high RAM prices also mean more scammers, as it is now very profitable to scam people with fake RAM. And people need tech, so not a really an option to stop buying completely.

And I doubt prices would go down if consumers would stop buying or buying less RAM. The prices are high because the tech corporations are willing to buy RAM at basically any cost. Consumers are just a drop in the ocean at this point.

Replying to @⁨blackberry28@sh.itjust.works⁩

If tech is going to be usurped entirely, then reject it. I’ve started doing everything I can by mail and physical presence. Don’t buy the hype that you NEED tech. If your friends won’t let you change how you get in touch with them, then they’re not that good of friends and you don’t really need them.

If all of my stacked 15 year old computers here stop being able to access Lemmy? Oh well. It’s been fun.

This is a war. They are winning because we are willing to have a point where we say, “Well, this is the limit… I have to capitulate now.” They rub their hands together gleefully waiting for you to cave.

Don’t. Be stubborn. Because if we don’t it’s already over. Legislators and underfunded foundations are not going to save us.

Replying to @⁨mycodesucks@lemmy.world⁩

Many people have been delaying their upgrades for a long time already. I bought my old RAM 2015 and tried to convince myself for so long that it’s still fine until I finally upgraded this year.

Buying RAM used often isnt really a good idea unless you have a friend who makes you a good deal. For example I could find the RAM type I wanted for 180€ used or pay 220€ for new parts. That’s not worth it for me and also doesn’t make a dent into the market.

Also remember that most new hardware is sold to either computing providers or businesses. ~70% of memory produced is consumed by AI data centers, leaving only 30% for mobile devices and personal computing.

Don’t get me wrong, consuming less and buying used are still good ambitions, but it realistically has no impact on how prices are formed.

Replying to @⁨mycodesucks@lemmy.world⁩

I’m still perfectly fine in my 6+ years old Gaming PC with 16GB.

But then again I switched from Windows to Linux about 2 years ago.

Since the time I started using PCs (over 3 decades ago), I went down the route of squeezing as much as I could from my desktop PCs by upgrading the hardware piece by piece rather than periodically buying a new one - to the point that I think I’ve done maybe just 3 full replacements in those 3 decades - the upgrades most of the time being memory, graphics cards and storage upgrades as those tend to be the best bang for the buck, though a few times all the way to replacing the motherboard (which sometimes forces things like memory upgrades and once even a computer box and power source upgrade, in the transition to ATX physical format).

All this to say that in the last few years since Windows has become so bloated and inneficient, Linux’s capabilities to run Windows software have become so good and the prices of the usually best value hardware upgrades (memory, graphics cards) have become so high that, in my (I believe informed) view, the best performance upgrade for one’s PC right now for most people is literally to replace Windows with Linux.

This isn’t fanboyism speaking - I’ve been using Linux for fun since the early 90s when I would install Slackware from floppy disks, professionally for a large part of my career (which was developing software for the server side, were Linux became dominant in the 00s) and only switched my Gaming PC to it 2 years ago because I before I didn’t feel it wasn’t at all hassle free to game in Linux and I didn’t want to come how to unwind from spending all day programming and doing bug-fixing just to be stuck at diagnosing problems running some game or other in Linux - this is genuinelly my analysis based on my experience of improving my PC almost always by targetted upgrading piece by piece to improve performance rather than regularly buying new machines.

In fact, I’ve done this upgrade not just for myself but also for a family member whose Windows 8 (!) PC had become incompatible with pretty much everything the used - put Linux in, put up the desktop shortcuts for them to get to what they use (browser, e-mail), configure the thing to auto-update and it’s problem solved.

Replying to @⁨Bluescluestoothpaste@sh.itjust.works⁩

Sadly not. Their 2026 consumer revenue is the highest it’s ever been. 2020, they made 11 billion, of which 5.5 was consumer. FY 2026 was 215 billion, of which 16 was gaming.

Their 2026 gaming revenue was bigger than their total revenue for 2020, and it’s also irrelevant to their bottom line.

Prices have gone up too, but I don’t think the average gaming GPU has gone up significantly more than 3x and probably less, so unit count is either unchanged or increased.

Replying to @⁨mycodesucks@lemmy.world⁩

Linux plus junk PCs. I’ve got a bunch of old computers my workplace tossed out because they wouldn’t take Windows 11 and I’ve never been happier with my tech setup in my life.

It’s probably some sort of mental condition, but I freaking love going trash-panda on our recycle PC pile and refurbing old hardware.

listen buddy, I’ve been getting computer junk every month for 20+ years. It’s all I think about and I still haven’t gotten addicted. If life has taught me anything is that the only thing you can’t get addicted to is free computer junk . how can I be addicted if it makes me happy? Computer junk is therapy, junking computers is LITERALLY my therapy. Life is free computer junk, everyday I wake up and I think about free computer junk. Every morning I grab my laptop and start looking on craigslist while I make my morning coffee. It’s literally all I think about, I can’t be at peace if I don’t junk at least 20$ a day. BUYING NEW IS JUST A PHASE. but I know a big junk pile is always right around the corner that’s why I’ll keep junking IT equipment until my wife leaves me.

Replying to @⁨mycodesucks@lemmy.world⁩

I’m not building a PC or buying a computer because I can make due with what I have a few years longer. But I do desperately need a new laptop at the office, so work is paying an outrageous sum of money for a new computer.

I’m also getting a few new employees - each of which is gonna need a computer

It businesses, not hobbyists paying these increased prices.

Replying to @⁨chewypoops@lemmy.world⁩

Well I’m not a bot and I rephrased the title to reflect my opinion. So there’s the explanation. Of course the demand from useless data centers will always be there; I was implying that the median consumer has been priced out of the equation. Same with other components. This is already having a ripple effect on multiple industries; the next price hike will put a lot of nails in a lot of coffins.

Replying to @⁨spacegoat@lemmy.world⁩

I’d be in favor of putting Trump and his ilk in prison, but explicitly still letting him campaign and run his grifts. Here’s the deal though… He doesn’t get any real money for it, he just gets “prison bucks” that get him nicer treatment/amenities. We take all the actual money he generates from grifting, and use it to fund education in the areas that lost the most money in the con.

It’s a double whammy to find hotspots of the stupidest, most gullible people on the planet, and also getting their children properly educated and able to recognize and avoid the same scams their parents fell for.

Replying to @⁨qImPMgxRpOZiUbxz4hWq@lemmy.world⁩

Unless you can actually afford the ram prices, just play older games. There’s a ton of AAA games that I’ve never played.

Then there’s tons of remastered games too. I haven’t touched those. Older games are affordable and run on max settings with any modern computer.

We already have a life time of quality games and computer parts in circulation.

I think when we look back at this time we will see how new games are optimized and intended to run on lower end hardware rather than the “look how real it is” formula.

A good example is borderlands. Cell shading was created because it was aesthetically pleasing while also consuming the least amount of resources. When optimization and performance were no longer a problem, games like border lands used cell shading but still required all lot of resources.

Replying to @⁨Greyghoster@aussie.zone⁩

More billion (or trillion) parameters give exponentially less return, and they keep adding parameters (which also increases the cost exponentially) anyway. This is just one of the infinite signs that those companies don't give a single f*** about society or the well being of the population.

Test yourself on Ollama now, since the servers are way more stable as of now. Deepseek-4.1 is just as good as GPT-6.

Edit: you have to create an interface with tools for using Ollama Cloud, and this isn't exactly directly available as of now, so keep that in mind before signing in.

Edit2: Deepseek-V4 comparing itself to other models

When Token is more expensive than people, "AI narrative" is in trouble, Chinese

arXiv logoarXiv.orgDeepSeek-V4: Towards Highly Efficient Million-Token Context IntelligenceWe present a preview version of DeepSeek-V4 series, including two strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models -- DeepSeek-V4-Pro with 1.6T parameters (49B activated) and DeepSeek-V4-Flash with 284B parameters (13B activated) -- both supporting a context length of one million tokens. DeepSeek-V4 series incorporate several key upgrades in architecture and optimization: (1) a hybrid attention architecture that combines Compressed Sparse Attention (CSA) and Heavily Compressed Attention (HCA) to improve long-context efficiency; (2) Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) that enhance conventional residual connections; (3) and the Muon optimizer for faster convergence and greater training stability. We pre-train both models on more than 32T diverse and high-quality tokens, followed by a comprehensive post-training pipeline that unlocks and further enhances their capabilities. DeepSeek-V4-Pro-Max, the maximum reasoning effort mode of DeepSeek-V4-Pro, redefines the state-of-the-art fo

Replying to @⁨obbeel@kbin.earth⁩

I’d recommend openrouter or something over ollama cloud. Fuck giving meta money. Or a subscription, since those tend to give much more tokens per dollar if utilized properly, I’m going through so many GLM 5.3 flash tokens it’s not even funny, on the cheapest z.ai coding plan, nearly never running out of usage limits, and getting nearly as good results as Claude Opus just a few months ago (like 4.8 or 5, not some old version)

Replying to @⁨explodicle@sh.itjust.works⁩

Yes…and the prices of those things will definitely not go down when anything crucial becomes more expensive. They’re not going to lower prices just because software has to be better optimized now, because guess what’s gonna cost more in labour now too.

You’re still thinking it’s about gaming. Yes, the fact that these few companies own this supply is not economically sustainable, when was the last time they let a bubble actually pop without funneling state wealth into keeping it going? These financialization models are too convoluted, almost like this has been going on for a long fucking while; which means we should not assume we can guess when it will “pop.”

Replying to @⁨explodicle@sh.itjust.works⁩

🫩 bud, if the memory is more expensive, elements throughout a computer reliant economy becomes more expensive. Have you thought the insane inflation of prices on everything over the past two years is just for fun? Just because of the oil?

The services and products I was referring to as far as computation goes is regarding anything tech related. They’re not going to decrease the price of devices or software anywhere because this represents a fundamental increase in production cost that also leads to other costs through the labour to actually make shit work on what consumers can afford. The profit margins were already reliant on exploitative labour and resource extraction practices, and it is required to continue to increase by any means necessary.

We live in a capitalist system, no not the one you learned about on Twitter or in highschool, but the real one where progressive, infinite growth is necessary for the system to function, and neoliberal politics has very effectively secured state funding for corporate interests over the past five decades. You’re in Canada? Mark Carney’s markedly neoliberal response to the '08 crisis (axeing prime and encouraging spending) is why we had a housing “bubble” for over a fucking decade with a decline in market value being met not with a “pop,” but with subsidies by the state that secures even more property for private capital.

You are thinking things work they way they don’t because you haven’t effectively challenged your understanding of what this system is at a fundamental level. There is no capitalist world where a “pop,” happens and your wealth doesn’t get extracted to recover that loss for capitalists.

Replying to @⁨orioler25@lemmy.world⁩

🫩 bud, if the memory is more expensive, elements throughout a computer reliant economy becomes more expensive. Have you thought the insane inflation of prices on everything over the past two years is just for fun? Just because of the oil?

Are you implying that you think the inflation is because of RAM prices? If so, then you’re being a little condescending about an awfully huge leap, akin to wtfhappenedin1971 links blaming it on monetary inflation.

Replying to @⁨explodicle@sh.itjust.works⁩

I love that other elements of inflation are present in that exact section you quoted, and you still just assumed I was too dumb to know that memory isn’t the most important thing in the world, even though you clearly haven’t spent enough time learning about this yourself.

No, it isn’t just memory, but, like oil, computer components are a fundamental element of our capitalist economy, which means it effects the entire system, not just your rgb gamur hardware. Read the rest of the comment.

Replying to @⁨qImPMgxRpOZiUbxz4hWq@lemmy.world⁩

The main problem I have with RAM increasing in price is not the RAM itself. I personally have enough RAM in my PC and I’m not looking to upgrade at any point in the near future.

No, my issue is how everything else becomes more expensive because of it.

Infrastructure requires two things these days: fuel and computers. And both are getting fucked over. Because of all the things that rely on this infrastructure, everything, even mundane things, will increase in price.

And when the bubble eventually pops, everyone below the ultra rich will suffer for it, another major economical crash like 2008. And of course the people responsible will get away with it.

Replying to @⁨Tattorack@lemmy.world⁩

“the people responsible will get sway with it”

Not only will they get away with it, but they will make massive profits off of it. They will be buying up foreclosed houses, colluding with their friends to short stocks of businesses they buy up and and run into the ground, buying the dip, and still having more than enough leftover to live how they are currently living.

Every time there is one of these recessions or economic crisises, the rich get a lot richer. To them it’s just “buying season”. They have enough money to wait it out.

Replying to @⁨adhdsergio@lemmy.world⁩

It’s a little better than usual pricing simply because it isn’t as popular, it’s not as if you have a choice in the type of RAM that you buy for your system, but there’s not much in it. I guess if you are im the market for a lot of RAM it would be a noticeable price difference l, but if you just in the market of a couple of sticks to add to your personal rig you’re not going to notice the price difference that much, it certainly less than the fluctuations you get between retailers.

Replying to @⁨qImPMgxRpOZiUbxz4hWq@lemmy.world⁩

When they say it’s predicted to last another three years what they mean is they hope it lasts another three years because that means they’re Investments will be worth more when the bubble finally does burst.

They can’t predict the market any more than anyone else can so this doesn’t really mean anything. We wait as well be asking tarot card readers if RAM prices are going to decrease anytime soon.