NekoKoneko@NekoKoneko@lemmy.world
edited

Replying to @⁨inari@piefed.zip⁩

This of course assumes the bubble doesn’t pop, and is presumably driven by memory purchase contracts with AI companies consuming all supply at peak pricing with 5-year terms. If OpenAI or Anthropic run out of investor money tomorrow, those contracts will be worthless and supply will recover (even if HBM capacity can’t be instantly reconfigured to consumer).

While I don’t expect it tomorrow, OpenAI has signaled a future of constant price increases with their new $500 monthly tier replacing their $200 tier, and it’s likely we’re in the start of the death spiral as subsidized supply ends, demand plummets in response, and unprofitable companies start folding. But the AI market market has remained irrational for much longer than it should have.

(Just a reminder to roll back your overclocks while we huddle for warmth during tech winter.)