Of course it will

I’m getting Chinese ram then fuck it.

That sounds like it would chafe terribly…

Still a lot cheaper than fuckin’ Micron’s RAM right now.

chafes less than getting fucked by criminal profiteering

Make sure to use silicone based lubricant; that, at least, doesn’t require any rare earth metals.

This of course assumes the bubble doesn’t pop, and is presumably driven by memory purchase contracts with AI companies consuming all supply at peak pricing with 5-year terms. If OpenAI or Anthropic run out of investor money tomorrow, those contracts will be worthless and supply will recover (even if HBM capacity can’t be instantly reconfigured to consumer).

While I don’t expect it tomorrow, OpenAI has signaled a future of constant price increases with their new $500 monthly tier replacing their $200 tier, and it’s likely we’re in the start of the death spiral as subsidized supply ends, demand plummets in response, and unprofitable companies start folding. But the AI market market has remained irrational for much longer than it should have.

(Just a reminder to roll back your overclocks while we huddle for warmth during tech winter.)

It’s definitely barreling towards us… I’m hoping it’s a disatrous OpenAI IPO that does it, because it’s easy enough to understand, but it will probably be a chain reaction starting from some minor event that is gonna take a 5-hour Youtube to fully explain.

I wish Jenny Nicholson was on this beat.

My youtube algorithm is filled with AI doom/truthsayers and it feels like everybody else is taking crazy pills. Ed Zitron is a bit theatric but there’s nothing factually wrong with his arguments. Eli the Computer guy explains it in plain language that would be easily refutable should a refutation exist. I’m not shorting anything but I’m certainly not going out of my way to add any funds with significant exposure to AI companies.

The hidden variable is how much money can the us treasury print to keep the ai bubble going. Nobody knows that, could be one trillion more and the system collapsed, could be maybe the debt needs to double to $80T before collapse.

At this point, with trump and the tech billionaires in charge, they’re just going to keep printing money until they can’t.

😑

Guy selling memory says buy memory now it’s only going to get more expensive?

“Please keep piling on the hype fomo train we have every single one of our eggs in this one basket”

Right? In what world? This year we saw CXMT come online and they claim they’re going to handle most of China’s supply, so that’s a whole fucking country Micron/SK/Samsung are losing on. Then also we’ve seen datacenter buildouts slowing down and not being financed. So supply is going up and demand is going down. Now I’m not a big city economist, but in my books all that points to at minimum not the situation getting worse.

Might Micron be a bit sad they left the consumer market who is frothing at the mouth for RAM?

That’s why they decided to fix the prices for the next few years.

It’s almost as if they’re trying to sell as much as possible now, at what is likely to be the peak price for a long while …

China isn’t allowed to buy nvidia AI GPUs anyway so the demand CXMT is primarily going to be filling is that which China can’t buy anyway. The DDR production is more of a secondary priority

So… How those Chinese ram sticks are going ? Good, nice, now i gonna ditch another segment of western market for affordable asian tech…

Is the western market going to allow that or are they going to ban it because “security reasons”.

Right now they want it banned because "they stole the tech"

sorry bud but if you have the patent and artificially keep demand high and supply low, you don't deserve that patent.

Luckly i don’t live in a ditatorship like u.s., i just gonna get myself two sticks once Aliexpress start to sell it

Didn’t they literally steal a lithography machine? Nothing is ever a security threat to some of you till you wake up with your roof gone and bank being empty.

My bank accounts empty and zero of that was paid to china, all us companies taking all my money, fuck em.

What do you mean they’re taking your money? Sue then? Or do you mean “I pay for services”?

EDIT: Stupidity aside, I do have to stress that yes, you will be poorer as for many governments, alot of income comes from chip manufacturing and related industries. After China stole the secrets and machine, they will now take your social funds.

Stop blaming china for the failures of OUR GOVERNMENT. “china” didn’t make us attack iran for no reason, “china” didn’t let US tech plagiarize literally everything. “China” didn’t run our national debt to over $40T. “China” didn’t elect a leader of a global child sex trafficking ring. That’s all shit that WE DID TO OURSELVES.

The fuck you talking about? The technology and machine was stolen from Europe, not US. Not everything is about US. The biggest pain will be felt by Taiwan.

EDIT: the original comment which started this discussion said “western market” not “us market”. I’m from Europe myself.

“China” didn’t cause any of Europe’s problems either

Oh boy. I don’t even want to get into this. They are even actively assisting in a war towards European country which costs us aton. What do you think this temu tax is about? They for a very long time actively lied, exploited and manipulated law to avoid paying taxes and duties. There’s so much…

That was the least interesting video ive ever clicked on, thanks

Anything they do to a stick of ram would be obvious and cause so much more trouble than whatever it would gain.

you are wrong. people would buy it without thinking twice. also, it doesn’t need to be obvious, anything could be hidden in an additional package that looks like the other memory chips on the stick

In other news, water is wet.

Depends on how you define wet

When I built my 5800X3D/7900XTX PC, my research told me I’d need a 5090-class GPU to make my 5800X3D a meaningful bottleneck. As the 7800X3D and 9800X3D were released I could not afford a GPU that would make me want/need to upgrade my CPU. I will not have the fastest PC for the next few years but I can’t imagine 5090-class GPU performance being available for less than US$1000 before DDR6 is mature.

I will never understand people feeling the need to have the fastest PC. A PC that’s 80% as fast as the fastest PC costs less than half the price. The word “future-proof” gets thrown around so much I feel its a meaningless expression. Very few people can give a legitimate reason to need top end equipment such as a 5090.

In 2023 when I built my PC and ran a benchmark and it said I had a top 3% PC (now top 7%) I was PROPER chuffed. 3DMark is the ultimate pay-to-win and there I was with my lower middle-class-salary (and no kids). I have low double digits in gaming hours on the machine in the last two years and pretty much use it as an HTPC. I just loaded up the Witcher 3 Remastered and maybe I just don’t like gaming. I have a 5700X3D/9070XT as a backup and an 11600K/6900XT as a backup-backup. I had grand dreams of sim racing and local LLM and retro gaming and nah.

So, should I hold onto my 8GB SODIMM or should I cash in?

Hodl 💎 🙌🏻

Buy now! Quickly! Things will only get worse if you wait! I’m telling you this because I’m such a nice guy!

– Salesman

ALTTigh! Tight! Tight!

Fucking cartel bastards.

CEO says his products are worth more and will continue to increase in value.

Shocking.

Aomebody please think of the shareholders /s

Reminds me of the previous RAM cartel - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_industry_price_fixing

But only this time, its much worse