I think NVIDIA has a higher chance of survival because they’re the ones actually producing something tangible (GPUs) that is still needed even if openweight models prevail.

they’re doing far more than just that, the way jensen has been able to structure all almost all of these deals essentially offloading all the risk. they sell essentially lease the hardware, ontop of huge chunk of premium up front, ontop of paying for compute itself, ontop of offloading any actual buildout cost onto any greedy schmuck willimg to pay the tab. nvda will be completely fine (though stock price will obviously correct as bubble-levels income drops)

shovels, gold, etc

At the same time, they are doing extreme price gouging with little improvement between generations since h200. Huawei actually has better $/performance ratio and accelerating faster. Others have better inference solution, with AMD doing better on $/training performance too. The fact that Nvidia is the one propping up the AI bubble, sinking their cashflow into dead ends, makes it a bad stock too. Peak NVidia BS got exposed in an Australian IPO this week. It was too absurd to get anyone to buy and got cancelled. Heavily backed by NVidia.

Yeah, they’ll be fine assuming there isn’t an Enron level legal motion. They are sort of not on the hook for anything financially. I’m not sure how legal it all is though. I’m pretty sure it isn’t, but even if it isn’t it’s still a question if they’ll be held accountable.

And whoever scavenges their corpse will milk their customers prisoners even harder!

I doubt it. Government would step in and bail them out.

yep, with our money.

This isn’t going to happen. They’re not the banks, and they’re pretty universally hated in the country.

But their owners didn’t kiss the ring for nothing.

When the AI bubble pops it’s going to take down the banks.

There is a lot of private credit dollars loaned to data centers and the banks are heavily invested in private credit.

It’s a house of cards priced for perfection just waiting for one of the big 5 to have a slightly off quarter.

I would comment about Oracle, but I don’t want legal bills.

Fuck 'em with a rusty rake

they wont be fine, they will suffer heavy lossess but will survive, likely just by laying off hordes tech people, and even downsizing thier warehouses. i think nvidia will get off mostly less harmed though, since they sold thier products years ahead.

Oracle, though. It’s possible they’ll actually die. And wouldn’t that be tragic.

Oh the humanity