Through 2030? I was hoping the AI bubble would have burst by then…. I really should have gone for that 64gb

I bought 32gb DDR5 four months ago at crazy prices, and those two sticks have done better than any stocks I’ve bought in the last year.

Keep in mind this is a statement by a manufacturer who’s trying to get his customers to sign long term contracts at current prices, so it’s in their interest to have people believe that the shortage continues.

Doesn’t mean it’s not possible, bit it should be read in that context

There’s also no actual shortage to begin with, it’s a sham through and through.

What do you mean? The fact that the tech corps building the data centres are useless fluff doesn’t mean the memory isn’t being bought, or that there isn’t an actual shortage.

Sure the chip companies are probably doing some OPEC style shenanigans, but for all intents and purposes, there is a shortage driving up the price.

A real shortage would imply that they have no capacity to produce RAM in quantities required to satisfy the market demand. They do and they simply choose not to do that. They also continuously keep throwing in these “news” about RAM prices staying high for a decade to come, driving panic purchases up to further solidify “shortage” claims in the consumer market.

What they are choosing is to not produce anything for the consumer market any longer.

They see these big companies trying to corner the market on cloud services and AI and they’re betting the future is letting these guys control everything.

If all consumers’ money has to be funneled through like 3 or 4 providers, best to bet on those providers and their subcontractors.

This is why capitalism sucks ass.

Yup, long term contracts only benefit them. It locks the customer in, and if the customer can’t follow through, they can go after them for breach, and still have the ability to sell to others and recover their costs. It’s basically a win-win for suppliers.

RAM salesman says RAM prices should bstay obscenely high. Shocking!

Hoping to bring people, who are holding back, to buy now, before the bubble bursts and memory is dirt cheap, huh?

Bullshit. Chinese RAM is ramping up to world scale levels. LLMs are reaching massive diminishing returns points, and open weights local AI setups that are near frontier level, and which can be run on consumer level hardware are already here, and getting very hardware efficient. The AI bubble burst is very close. Memory makers are pushing FOMO buying.

Yea, I wouldn’t be surprised if Samsung and SK Hynix would come to regret their deals with OpenAI once the Chinese have ramped up production and price them out of the market.

This. As with any technology, it will always improve. The American government helped the Chinese by barring the chips from them, meaning they had to program more efficient models.

We don’t know if they’re actually more efficient because ClosedAI and Anthropic won’t tell us how (in)efficient their models are, whether they’re running quants, etc. Kimi K3 is about 3 terabytes of VRAM unquantized so I wouldn’t call the Chinese models super efficient either. The “efficient” models are the distillations and particularly quantized versions of some Chinese models. Nothing stopping ClosedAI and Anthropic from doing the same if they’re willing to lose a bit in accuracy.

Yeah, but that news won’t make a boardroom happy.

The local models require massive amounts of ram that isn’t available for most consumer hardware

I do hope the bubble bursts soon but low ram and local ai aren’t compatible

Ay, if you are sure about that, buy calls (or puts, idk) from open AI and 2x your money!

Pay attention to history. Supply crunches like this are followed by supply glut.

There’s a reason why a company like SanDisk is signing multi year fixed price contracts now with the big data guys. That’s not a bet on hardware prices continuing to rise.

Yeah this is like when the cops investigated themselves and find no wrongdoing. Why would anyone listen to the chip mafia when they have only their own interests in mind. They want you to think that there is no point in waiting for prices to drop, when that is obviously what everyone should be doing right now. Basically everyone should boycott the entire semiconductor industry as much as possible.

But this case they’re just not making consumer ram. No glut.

Could it be again due to price fixing agreements. It's a real cartel!

Sure, as long as you don’t account for the AI bubble ever bursting. After that, memory will be cheap. We’ll be living in an economic hellscape, but the memory will be cheap.

why would it be cheap, if people would buy it at 4x the normal price?

The price is only high because of the artificial demand from all the data centers. Manufacturers are increasing production capacity to provide more supply. Once the bubble bursts, that demand will drop, but the production capacity will still be there. Supply and demand. Price will go down.

I thought of the problem is they aren’t ramping up production because they think AI is a bubble

No, they are definitely ramping up production, just not nearly fast enough. Chip factories take longer to build than data centers.

First new fabs are being opened this or next year last I heard. AI boom started in 2022 and fab construction and setup time is said to be 4 years (or more if there are issues).

Of course the question is, will they be making more DDR or more HBM…

thats what the economics textbook says, but it also says that all parties in the economy are perfectly rational. however this is not the reality. they have tested it, people are already used to the high prices and they have no problem with it, enough of them will buy it anyway. the price drops from completely unaffordable 7x price to barely affordable 4x price, and people are already buying it again. if they aim for 4x price, they only need the quarter of the former sales to make the same profit. and if at 4x price the sales are the quarter of former sales, they could theoretically shut down most factories or production lines to reduce costs and in turn raise profits even more.

This is my read on it too. I give it a year.

Unavoidably high prices are unavoidable says company who’s actions are causing prices to be high

Yeah. Sure.

Goddammit this is so infuriating as a homelabber

Might really be the time to revisit smartphone-based server ideas.

Used DDR4 sodimms on eBay. Got 2x8GB for 35 pounds.

Help us, China. You’re our only hope.

Chinese companies are not investing in very expensive RAM fabrication plants in order to sell it on the cheap…

I really, really hope that the Chinese take most of the market away from these assholes.

I don’t like conspiracy theories but hugging face was bought, tens of thousands of Mac’s were bought, RAM is “indefinitely “ high priced.

Starting to feel someone doesn’t want the self hosted AI to get legs.

It’s just hyper capitalism unfortunately.

Self hosting isnt a threat to them, most folks ain’t doing that. And those of us who do already block most of their ways to generate revenue of our usage, so we don’t really matter to them.

Self hosting also requires a ton of RAM because each individual user has to load a (usually slightly smaller) model + KV cache, whereas for hosted, they load the huge-ass model once (per cluster) and then store KV caches for a bunch of users, which has better scaling.

The memory companies win whether you self-host or pay a subscription. They might win more if you self-host because look at the cost of self-hosting, it’s actually pretty steep if you don’t have the hardware already from the before times.

SK Hynix has strong incentives to say this. It’s an unremarkable statement.