Wall Street, where everything is possible…if you just fucking lie confidently.

I think some of them actually believe. Like on Blind where the tech bros think $100k/yr is poverty wage. They haven’t been living in reality in a long time. The tech boom has been going on since what like 2010. It’s far longer than the dotcom bubble. They keep managing to jump from one fad to the next. It’s far eclipsed prior bubbles.

Tbh 100k/yr is poverty wage in downtown San Francisco…

100k/year in San Francisco is definitely low income.

Official government figures using an exemplary family of four (two adults two children) already classified a household income of $117,400 as low income back in 2018. By 2025, that threshold has risen to $159,000.

San Francisco: Where a six-figure salary is ‘low income’ - www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44725026

Places Where a Six-Figure Salary is Considered ‘Low Income’ - internewscast.com/…/places-where-a-six-figure-sal…

Case in point. The world doesn’t revolve around San Francisco. You guys are neurotically hyperfocused on your little world.

Your example there is household income. In that exemplary family that means each parent is making $60k in 2018, $80k today. Which paints a very different picture to the claim that “a six figure salary is considered low income”.

The worst part is I don’t even think that they think they’re lying.

They’re so delusional that they 100% believe what they’re saying.

They are absolutely delusional enough to think that THEIR company will eventually reach AGI but I don’t think any truly believe these numbers.

There’s been no consequences for lying, only more profit. Look at the space X ipo…The market has shown they’ll pay whatever they’re told to so lie lie lie.

Lying gets you customers, investors, and government subsidies. And when your competitor lies, you just have to lie harder. The grift economy.

Even if they achieve AGI they can’t control it themselves, because that would be slavery.

You also never get punished if the lie is big enough.

Why stop at 30 trillion? I’d have thought anything above 4 or 5 would be pure fantasy.

4 or 5 dollars, yeah

keep in mind that would be enough to solve homelessness in virtually any nation

Yeah but how would you motivate people to keep their abusive underpaying jobs without the implicit threat of homelessness?

Guys I see 100 billion potential children of mine being born in the next year if my entire sperm count is utilized.

Wake her ass up!

Rob Schneider is a piece of shit.

With about 4 billion women, that would require they get 25 children with you each.
Yes the math checks out, that sounds possible over a period of some years.
For a second there I thought you were exaggerating. 😋

I’m calling the police right now to report you for the millions of crimes you could potentially commit over the next year.

I’m calling the police right now to report you for the millions of crimes you could potentially commit over the next year.

Yeah, and I foresee over $30 trillion of potential revenue in my OnlyFans page.

The difference? There is a realistic expectation of at least some guaranteed revenue from my onlyfans page without incurring tens of billions of dollars in debt first.

And I can show legitimate growth on my onlyfans page without the aid of “AI”. And while “AI” is a fad, the world‘s oldest profession isn’t going anywhere…

What’s your OF? Asking for a friend, lol

I’m not gonna tell you because I have an aunt named Patty McBride IRL, and this just got real weird

As long as your aunt is a paying subscriber…

😬

For context, that’s 25% of world GDP or ~$3750 for every man, woman and child on earth.

GAAP or GTFO

That’s over a quarter of 2025’s global GDP. Just to highlight how grounded and sensible this claim is.

Meanwhile, in the real world, my company has locked down usage of Anthropic’s top-tier models, because costs were out of control. Even the low-end models are usage-capped, and developers are starting to write code by hand again.

And we’re busily setting up local models we control ourselves on our network edge. We’ll probably end up with a modest budget for frontier models (until the model providers collapse), but most of the coding will be done by local models and developers themselves.

And that seems to be the way the entire industry is going, unless Anthropic starts subsidizing tokens with investor money again.

In conclusion: Get fucked, Dario.

You hiring? 🤓

Hmm. Maybe. How much VRAM you got?

Honest answer? Not much… yet. As the stupidity of “tokenmaxxing” and replacing developers with hallucinations-and-plagiarism engines really comes into focus, I expect developer hiring to ramp back up.

Complex programs are going to absolutely collapse from all the bugs introduced by vibe coding tokenmaxxers.

It’s already happening. Software instability is becoming a major problem.

And we’re busily setting up local models we control ourselves on our network edge.

If you’re running Apple hardware I’ve liked what little I’ve seen personally from the MLX enhanced models running locally.

Anthropic is only useable within a subscription. Once you hit that limit, you pay like 10x more per token. Fuck that.

Oh yeah? Well my business making artisanal bibs for cats will have $31 trillion in potential revenue*

• assuming a cat owner population of around 1 googol.

Guys… $30TR is the TAM - not what Anthropic is saying they’re predicting to sell. This is being waaaaaaay overblown because of the misunderstanding of a single acronym

When a company is talking about TAM, you know they’ve got nothing better to do with their air

You say that like claiming your total addressable market is a quarter of all economic activity on earth isn’t completely batshit

I say that as someone reading the other comments.

Anthropic is likely to tell investors that it sees its total addressable ​market (TAM) exceeding $30 trillion, ahead of the $28.5 ‌trillion estimate from SpaceX (SPCX.O), the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.

they’re predicting to sell GREATER THAN $30 trillion because they’re overvaluing a business that has no pathway to profitability.

It also isn’t ’way overblown’ because in no way is this standard behaviour in a market. To me it looks like a pump and dump with more steps.

they’re predicting to sell

This is exactly the point of my first comment. TAM is not “what you expect to sell.” It does not mean that.

we’re standing on a cliff watching people get swept away by a big wave and you keep clarifying to all the onlookers that it’s actually called a tsunami.

forest from the trees dude.

So the global total GDP this year is estimated to be $100trillion. Anthropic expects it’s revenue to eventually be equivalent to 30% of global GDP? US GDP is expected to be $32trillion this year. Antrhopic expects it’s revenue to be eventually be equivalent to 94% of US GDP?

And we’re supposed to believe we’re not in a bubble?

SpaceX expects 26T. OpenAI didn’t say but if you ask Sam he’ll make up a number for you for the last third of world GDP.

Their argument is that AI will make everybody so productive that world GDP will grow massively. Not that there really is any evidence for that, but hallucinating things is now a business plan.

Total addressable market is the amount of revenue they think is available to all AI providers, combined. So it makes sense that this is in the same ballpark as SpaceX’s “enterprise services” estimate.

And yes they believe 25% of the economy can be automated with AI. Which is a big downgrade from 100%

Woah woah woah! You need to factor in that spaceX said it’s looking at $28T

I feel we’re watch a game of bullshitters.

he global total GDP this year is estimated to be $100trillion.

So you are saying they set the number too low? 🤣🤣🤣

Haha. Are you fucking kidding me!?

Apparently they are even more insane than Elon Musk!

why make trillions when we could make… billions? - Microsoft

This is a scam to outsource their market analysis and generate publicity

Where is this money coming from? VC’s sure as hell don’t want their companies spending big. Billionairs obviously won’t spend money on anything other than buying elections. Normal people have no money to spend on AI. So … what is the revenue stream? Don’t tell me it’s ads.

I don’t get it, that’s less than the global GDP, why is there parts of the global GDP they don’t consider accessible?
Or in other words, If they really go on to claim that, they are claiming that more than a quarter of the world GDP is accessible market to them!

This is insane, and has no basis in any kind of possible reality no matter how optimistically viewed.

I would love to see the logic behind that belief. It’s gonna be a good read. According to the first few results on the internet, the entier oil industry is, like, 4 Trillion per year (IEA says 3.5 Trillion in 2018). What the fuck is the slop bot supposed to do to make almost an entire US GDP of money?

A bout of hyperinflation is all that’s needed to make this prediction come true.

Meanwhile their ACTUAL revenue is a mere $5-10 billion.

And it’s kinda sorta pretend revenue from VCs and circular funding deals.

I don’t believe that for a second. Tokens are legit made up bullshit. Unless Nvidia is investing $4.9-9.9 billion, that math ain’t mathing.

Yes, but if you sum up those 10 billions for the next billion years of stable growth they’ll definitely eventually accrue that trillion figure.

is this revenue in the room with us right now?

Why would any investor believe this?

A whole group of people that no one needs lying to another group that no one needs while both destroy the earth

Economics has basically come down to “make ridiculous claims and as long as you claim it, mi ey will flow”