Data Centers Are a $6 Trillion Time Bomb, Analysts Warn: "What the industry needs is a wave of innovation that will dwarf what mobile and cloud unlocked."

AI’s business model is starting to look less like a revolution and more like a $6 trillion IOU. Bain says existing AI services may cover just $1.8 trillion by 2031, leaving a $4.2 trillion hole to justify the data center frenzy. Apparently the killer app is still: »please invent enough revenue before the depreciation schedule catches us!!!«

In order to make $6 trillion by 2031, every human being on earth would have to spend at least $150 per year on average.

Maybe that doesn’t sound like a lot if you’re already paying a $100 a month for a Claude max subscription or whatever, but consider that the vast majority of people don’t pay for any AI at all, and have no interest in ever paying for it.

Also, $150 is a best-case scenario where revenue is 100% profit. In actual reality, the profit margins are much, much lower, and may not even exist at all!

every human being on earth would have to spend at least $150 per year on average.

6b humans would need to spend $1000/year on average. On top of phone/computer + internet/data services. Global average spending on food/year is $1500.

We’re up to 8.3 billion people now, fam.

6 trillion / 8.3 billion = ~750

And that number has to be spread over 5 years since the target date to raise the 6 trillion is 2031.

750 / 5 = 150

But, like I said, that’s still just a conservative estimate that doesn’t account for the fact that the AI firms have astronomical operating costs to cover.

The$6T number is per year revenue target in 2031. 6B is a round number, but facebook has 3b monthly active users, and google ai overview has 2.5b monthly active users. baidu (no google overlap) has 644m monthly active users. So at 3b internet connected users addressable or so, its $2000/user. MAUs double count work/personal/multiple/bot accounts.

Also, there’s about 1b desk/knowledge workers in the world. = $6000/job/year