I’ve come to realize that I was assuming that there was a limit somewhere to “the market staying irrational”. I’m not so sure anymore

You could argue that a heavily debt-based business that requires years and years of more debt before becoming profitable would respond to rising interest rates quite negatively, but, yeah, the whole thing is already enitrely irrational.

I’m keeping some popcorn in reserve for OpenAI’s IPO.

I don’t get why they haven’t gone already.

If they don’t get their IPO off before the bubble pops, they might be losing out on a trillion with a capital T

1. They are true believers
2. They know they’ll get a bail out because they are too big to fail

3. When everyone sees their S-1, it’s gonna make WeWork look like fucking Amazon

Well that ship has SAILED, either way

But the question is whether or not they’re actively holding debt or just letting themselves get diluted through investments.

There’s more supply than demand for compute at the moment, so Microsoft is more than happy to buy ownership through Azure credits - Likewise Amazon is with AWS credits

Oh, they’re definitely holding debt in addition to whatever else the hell is going on with their shell games.

It’s less about fundamentals and more about what investors believe about the market. That’s why Musk is so good at manipulating the market, he’s convincing enough for many investors.

The market has never been rational.

the market is irrational

🧑‍🚀🔫🧑‍🚀

always been this way

Tesla is all you need to look at regarding that.