posted in Technology
News Organizations Like CBS Embracing Prediction Markets as “Journalism” Is a Deep Moral Disgrace: Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate in a regulatory vacuum.
futurism.com/future-society/news-organizations-cbs-prediction-markets-journalism
Replying to @eicker@lemmy.world
As much as y’all don’t want this to be accurate, sadly, it kind of is. Non-US betting markets in 2016, 2020, and 2024 all correctly called the US presidential election better than Five Thirty Eight or polls or any other formerly reliable method.
Edit: Sadly, you all downvoted this out of personal feels and anger, not accuracy of the statement, which has research to back it up. SMH.
The ConversationJoe Biden: how betting markets foresaw the result of the 2020 US electionThe bookies have got it right in all but two elections since 1868.Replying to @GreenShimada@lemmy.world
At which point were they more accurate? 5 minutes before the final count was counted? An hour? A day? Without this number is like a percentage with unknown reference.
Replying to @Eheran@lemmy.world
They were better at 5 minute/hour before networks called results, for sure. 2016 had HRC/dems for congress 80% odds of winning both day before, and before polls closed. 2020 has Biden winning during that time, but when results were being announced state by state, Trump jumped to a 75% chance of winning. Here, the networks were right to say “but Philadelphia hasn’t counted yet” type of hedges to “fake early leads” by Trump who was yelling to stop counting. 2024 was predicted well the whole time.