Bluesky’s active user base is shrinking as its focus expands beyond the app: 10.4 million monthly active users worldwide in June 2026, down 27.2% year-over-year.

Here’s the thing.

looks around

Hmmmm, yeah. That’s what I thought. Everyone here is the wrong audience to really comment on this.

The reason peoples opinion here doesn’t matter much is because like it or not, Lemmy is a hive mindset.

Don’t like linux? Booooooo

Don’t care about open source? Boooooo

Don’t engage in antisocial behavior? Boooooo

And thats the audience here. It’s impossible for you to comment on the mental state of the general broad population when this site seemingly collects an audience that goes out of their way to stay away from the broad general population. How could you possibly relate to someone like my brother in law, who uses Windows 11, without issue? I asked him how he can stsnd all the AI, and the spying. I was expecting an actual answer, and maybe some insight as to how to not make Windows 11 the dumpster fire that it is. Instead, he defends Windows 11 with blind faith ignorance. Insisting that there is no spying in Windows 11, and the AI is actually a good thing.

And I watched as an entire room nodded along in understanding. All agreeing with these points. I realized in that moment that there is zero conversation to be had with these people. I know for fact that Windows 11 spies on you. I know for fact that there is AI in Windows 11. It’s easy to see that if left at its current rate, that AI and data centers that support AI will inevitably lead to mass water shortages.

And I’m confident that these words would land harder here on Lemmy, where I think 99% of you understand the gravity and real nature of what I’m saying.

The problem is, 99% of Lemmy’s typical userbase accounts for 0.01% of the general population. This website is a bubble. Which is a shame, because I fully believe the model for Lemmys infrastructure is the cure for the problems that the general population complain about.

But it’ll never be tested at scale. Most people do not give a fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck about privacy, or open source, or decentralization. Facebook knows my phone number, and has photos of me. Against my consent. And my mom who’s in her 80s, who uses facebook to keep in touch with her sewing community, sees nothing wrong here.

Thats why the people here, who only support mastodon, will never understand why that stratagy won’t work for the masses. And honestly, even if it did, then it wouldn’t work for you.

Because twitter has something like 375 million users. When taylor swift wants to promote something, she does it on twitter. Because it’s where the people are. It’s also a right wing agenda platform, owned by a literal seig hailing nazi, but yet its still the default service regardless if you’re left or right. It’s just where the people are.

Here is what you have done. You saw an ocean. You took note of all the problems fish have in the ocean. You then designed a new concept where fish can swim in a tiny little manufactured pond. But if it gets too small, it can be scaled bigger. You removed the threats of being eaten. You’ve removed the fishing boats. You managed the algae. You planted seaweed so they have food. You installed everything a fish needs to have a happier healthier life from your perspective.

Except there’s no water in this pond. The fediverse concentrates so hard on the advanced features that would make for a great experience…and then forgets the basics that are needed to support life here. Social media only survives when it has an audience, just as fish only survive when they have water.

All the advanced stuff that goes unused in the fediverse means nothing without an audience. Basically if bluesky dies, the users go back to twitter.

You complain that mastodon is better. But bluesky only got popular because the general population didn’t want twitter with nazis. They wanted old twitter. Bluesky is old twitter without the nazis. Thats all they wanted. But it’s only got a tiny fraction of the audience twitter has. So again, taylor swift says her things on twitter. Not bluesky. Not enough people on bluesky to be considered the default. Just like the fediverse can’t keep fish surviving without water, the same is true on bluesky.

The order it goes is that celebrities need to say things to hold an audience. Before the internet, that platform was tv/radio. There were also a lot less celebrities. Because tv/radio just didn’t have a need to create more celebrities. But now, a celebrity can either get their message across to 375 million, or 14 million.

Celebrities go where there is an infrastructure that can handle their fame, and the audience goes where the celebrities go. Below that are us. We’re not the 14 million. Lemmy has 60k and shrinking. But for us the order goes “infrastructure THEN audience”. Which is never going to pull in a huge audience. It can support a large audience. Argueably better. But it’ll never be tested.