Snowclone

it has all the markers, unless the corporations drastically restructure their debt or the product suddenly finds an actual demonstrable use, then it’s going to continue being a bubble. all that requires for it to burst is a large swath of people vested in the bubble to get itchy enough to pull enough money out for the value to be questioned or need to be proved, and AI currently is wildly expensive incuring huge amounts of debt, which is being passed around in a very quick and difficult to account for manner, and has no proven value that can be demonstrated as of yet. to be clear, by demonstrated value I mean you can pull out the paperwork and show where is currently profitable. so here’s the ad revenue, or here’s the government contracts, here the subscription payments, something. they are all operating at a loss and betting their entire companies that those avenues will be profitable eventually, but they aren’t currently and that’s with a VERY heavy hand on the scale, we already have the cost of data center power and water being charged to average people, total failure in providing value to military and police efforts, and people rejecting AI content as acceptable entertainment, it’s all a bust no matter how much they insist, and the application as a digital creative tool is unlikely, it’s jarring and can’t be consistent from one shot to the next causing the exact problems you train to avoid in serial art and animation. digital creative tools generally require a large effort and testing from actual artists in development to be even marginally useful in a production pipeline and AI tried to be useful without any input also with the hope it could simply bypass the people who do the creating, the problem is, it can’t, it can only look at what it sees, fail to identify basic fundamental art principals, and try and remix the art it can look at. look at any AI attempt to recreate cubism, it can’t, it’s totally confused by the concept of incorporating movement and primitive shapes into complex work.

another point. the ‘diversity’ in the system is running the model 10k times within the same model, that’s like saying you have a brain trust of 10k experts, except it’s just 10k copies of Gary. they seriously lack creative skills and abstract thought processes because they’re a very complex monoculture with no diversity in the models. and the reason that don’t have 10k unique models running is because that would be incredibly complicated and time consuming and this is a product to sell, not a need being filled.

you’re assigning human traits to a computer program that is a language model that’s not actually meeting the standards of artificial intelligence, it’s a reward based system, you say ‘what is the best build for a raiper weapon in Dark Souls’, and it looks up faqs and spits out the language it expects you’re looking for. it doesn’t think and if it finds 12 joke posts on reddit saying something totally contradictory to how anyone would play the game, then it will give you the joke advice with no sense that that’s terrible. if the military is asking it how to deal with their rival military is going to look at those key words and gather language to repeat back and if that language it find is biased, prejudice, hostile, incredibly out of date, well, it’s not Intelligence, it doesn’t think or understand anything, it’s finding language, it’s giving you that language back. and if it’s looking at military documents to find that language, it’s going to see bias and prejudice and hostility and a desire to engage in war for profit and it’s going to regurgitate that back to them. it’s horrifying the military is allowing a language model that’s repeatedly been proven to magnify existing bias and prejudice if finds when looking for an answer is being allowed to process anything and is anywhere near the decision making process.

War Games was a computer planning planet destroying nuke attacks because it was taught to play chess and not tic tac toe. it needed to learn about pointless victory. This is a bunch of jackasses in a room buying a thinky box asking it questions and taking the answers seriously enough to go to war relieving themselves of the burden of thought and common sense. this isn’t War Games, it’s a classic Star Trek episode except Kirk never shows up to teach us that you can’t let a fucking computer program run your fucking military intelligence, because that’s INSANE. Why would you do that? you need multiple human eyes on everything going on, you can’t let a fucking language model do it for you… my god… it’s children doing their homework with AI, except their homework is the apparatus that used to enforce the rule of law on a global scale. granted, that was always a lie as it’s more the gun that enforced colonial interests, but still. a gun that decides it need to start shooting random people who could win a war against us depending on the lines drawn and the time frame is a pretty dangerous thing to let go.

it’s how people are choosing to use it, it’s more stealthly that most people think, they aren’t THAT obvious, they really need some kind of very clear ‘this is a recording camera’ tell that can’t be turned off, no one who wants to do legit things with it would care. like how you can’t mute shutter sounds on phones sold in Japan.

NYPD officers got caught on a massage board explaining in detail how to claim any knife at all could be called a gravity knife to get better arrest records for promotions, that’s why I used that example.

it’s really easy to make 60% of your population commit a felony. you just continue to pass laws with the assumption that draconian punishments deter crime. and you keep making lesser and lesser crimes felonies, and punishments harsher, and you can have judges who just want to funnel people into prison to fund their own personal investments. it also helps to have corrupt cops that want to make those felony collars to get promotions and raises. cops literally train each other to escalate things to felonies or find felony charges where clearly none should exist like calling a box cutter a ‘gravity knife’ and charging a felony and if that person isn’t hiring a quality lawyer the public defender with 600 cases says ‘you have 15 min of my time for this case, I glanced at it, I recommend you take a plea deal, our time is up, what’s your decision?’

Americans are INSANE about how much the want criminals punished, in CA a guy got a life sentence for stealing a pizza when we tried to have a ‘‘three strikes your out’’ law that automatically gave life sentences at any third conviction which is fucking crazy in a state with tack on laws to the point you can get convicted of 10+ crimes on almost every single infraction, if you commit a felony with a pen or pencil in your pocket, that’s possession of a lethal weapon! it’s absurd. it’s still on the books the three strikes law, but it’s unenforceable because apparently having 60% of your population in prison for life is not a great plan for a civilization.

I saw this episode of TNG. Worf hated it. totally dead planet full of automatic weapons that kill anything that moves and they were technological advanced beyond their ability to detect them because the previous inhabitants furthered warfare tech to the point of absurdity without ever becoming a spacefaring people and killed themselves.