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1. That’s my bet for the reasons I outlined. It’s not a bet in vacuum. I think it’s strong enough to consider it “certain,” colloquially speaking. Is it certain in mathematical terms? No, as you said - nothing is certain.
2. That’s not inconsitent with my bet. We can get into why but probablt don’t need to.
3. No idea what that’s about, not using PieFed. They limit what? Why do they do that? I read your explanation.

E: BTW I’m not unaware of the ability of for-profits to siphon people away from existing corporate platforms into new corporate or corporate-adjacent platforms, for example. E.g. Twitter -> Bluesky. I think that would be insufficient in the long run to halt the fediverse growth because every time this cycle occurs, some people fall off into the fediverse and that’s usually the more aware people. They tend to create more content.

1. That’s my bet for the reasons I outlined. It’s not a bet in vacuum. I think it’s strong enough to consider it “certain,” colloquially speaking. Is it certain in mathematical terms? No, as you said - nothing is certain.
2. That’s not inconsitent with my bet. We can get into why but probablt don’t need to.
3. No idea what that’s about, not using PieFed. They limit what? Why do they do that?

E: BTW I’m not unaware of the ability of for-profits to siphon people away from existing corporate platforms into new corporate or corporate-adjacent platforms, for example. E.g. Twitter -> Bluesky. I think that would be insufficient in the long run to halt the fediverse growth because every time this cycle occurs, some people fall off into the fediverse and that’s usually the more aware people. They tend to create more content.

1. That’s my bet for the reasons I outlined. It’s not a bet in vacuum. I think it’s strong enough to consider it “certain,” colloquially speaking. Is it certain in mathematical terms? No, as you said - nothing is certain.
2. That’s not inconsitent with my bet. We can get into why but probablt don’t need to.
3. No idea what that’s about, not using PieFed. They limit what? Why do they do that?

E: BTW I’m not unaware of the ability of for-profits to sift people away from existing corporate platforms into new corporate or corporate-adjacent platforms, for example. E.g. Twitter -> Bluesky. I think that would be insufficient in the long run to halt the fediverse growth because every time this cycle occurs, some people fall off into the fediverse and that’s usually the more aware people. They tend to create more content.

1. That’s my bet for the reasons I outlined. It’s not a bet in vacuum. I think it’s strong enough to consider it “certain,” colloquially speaking. Is it certain in mathematical terms? No, as you said - nothing is certain.
2. That’s not inconsitent with my bet. We can get into why but probablt don’t need to.
3. No idea what that’s about, not using PieFed. They limit what? Why do they do that?

E: BTW I’m not unaware of the ability of for-profits to sift people away from existing corporate platforms into new corporate or corporate-adjacent platforms, for example. E.g. Twitter -> Bluesky. I think that would be insufficient in the long run to halt the fediverse growth because every time this cycle occurs, some people fall of to the fediverse and that’s usually the more aware people.

1. That’s my bet for the reasons I outlined. It’s not a bet in vacuum. I think it’s strong enough to consider it “certain,” colloquially speaking. Is it certain in mathematical terms? No, as you said - nothing is certain.
2. That’s not inconsitent with my bet. We can get into why but probablt don’t need to.
3. No idea what that’s about, not using PieFed. They limit what? Why do they do that?